Editor's note: The Indian cotton ban will end Zheng cotton's bottom line in advance.
The Indian government issued an announcement on March 5 that it will ban the export of cotton with the tariff numbers 5201 and 5203, including export orders already registered with the government. According to Indian customers, the cotton that was ready for shipment at the port that day was no longer available for customs clearance.
According to statistics from China Customs, as of January, China imported 800,000 tons of Indian cotton this year. In February, China's import data is expected to be announced around the 10th of this month, and is expected to remain at around 150,000 tons. Therefore, the cotton shipments that have not been contracted by Indian cotton in the future may be between 300,000 tons and 350,000 tons.
The specific impact of the Indian cotton export ban is briefly summarized as follows:
1. Disruption of follow-up import arrangements of some domestic textile companies and cotton traders has forced them to switch to the purchase of domestic cotton or other cotton in the international market, which has provided potential support for the price of the US dollar. The disk has already made a clear reaction on that day. The price of electronic cotton in the US cotton rose by more than 4%, and Zheng Cotton's opening in the afternoon pulled up about 300 points.
2,300,000 tons - 350,000 tons, probably the current half of the domestic textile enterprises in the next month, the impact of its need to do a comprehensive assessment and trade-offs, after the short-term fluctuations, you need to calmly analyze.
3. Over-export of Indian cotton has caused great attention in India. India introduced this policy background and more lobbying based on the domestic textile industry to ensure that domestic textile companies use cotton demand; in turn, after the implementation of this policy, the cost of domestic textile cotton in India may be lower later than now, including self-sufficiency Pakistan is also the issue.
The big problem that has plagued China's textile companies is that the difference in the cost of spinning cotton has not been resolved, but it is likely to deepen, and the downstream export competitiveness and ability to accept orders will decline.
4. One of the problems that has been hyped in the domestic market in the near future is that the country has not issued quotas, and even contracted cotton cannot be entered into the country. Therefore, at present, India’s cotton is banned from export, and India’s cotton cannot enter the domestic market. According to common sense, the market has already digested expectations that it is difficult to obtain quotas, and the impact will be compromised.
5. China's current port inventory cotton itself is already high and it is reported that it has remained at more than 1 million tons. It does not include cotton that will be shipped to Hong Kong in succession, and there is no shortage of market resources.
6. China's reserve cotton currently has a total of 2.7 million tons of storage and storage, supplemented with imported cotton, and is expected to reach 4 million tons by the end of March. Consider continuing to increase purchasing and storage in the next year, and it will be released later by throwing stockpiles. The large supply and demand pattern is still relatively loose.
7. US cotton exports have exceeded this year's tasks, and the immovable prices are more significant. Under the Indian cotton export ban, which triggered new contracts to deal with Indian cotton, it may reduce the widespread phenomenon of cotton contract destruction caused by falling prices. .
Affected by India's ban on cotton exports, Zheng cotton has risen sharply. Taken together, India’s cotton exports are prohibited as an emergency policy, and it is possible to end the bottom price of domestic and foreign cotton prices ahead of schedule, and to find a phased bottom price as soon as possible. However, the height of the rebound at the top must not be over expectation. Ultimately, it depends on the consumption of the market, the reaction of textile companies, and the domestic policy situation.
The Indian government issued an announcement on March 5 that it will ban the export of cotton with the tariff numbers 5201 and 5203, including export orders already registered with the government. According to Indian customers, the cotton that was ready for shipment at the port that day was no longer available for customs clearance.
According to statistics from China Customs, as of January, China imported 800,000 tons of Indian cotton this year. In February, China's import data is expected to be announced around the 10th of this month, and is expected to remain at around 150,000 tons. Therefore, the cotton shipments that have not been contracted by Indian cotton in the future may be between 300,000 tons and 350,000 tons.
The specific impact of the Indian cotton export ban is briefly summarized as follows:
1. Disruption of follow-up import arrangements of some domestic textile companies and cotton traders has forced them to switch to the purchase of domestic cotton or other cotton in the international market, which has provided potential support for the price of the US dollar. The disk has already made a clear reaction on that day. The price of electronic cotton in the US cotton rose by more than 4%, and Zheng Cotton's opening in the afternoon pulled up about 300 points.
2,300,000 tons - 350,000 tons, probably the current half of the domestic textile enterprises in the next month, the impact of its need to do a comprehensive assessment and trade-offs, after the short-term fluctuations, you need to calmly analyze.
3. Over-export of Indian cotton has caused great attention in India. India introduced this policy background and more lobbying based on the domestic textile industry to ensure that domestic textile companies use cotton demand; in turn, after the implementation of this policy, the cost of domestic textile cotton in India may be lower later than now, including self-sufficiency Pakistan is also the issue.
The big problem that has plagued China's textile companies is that the difference in the cost of spinning cotton has not been resolved, but it is likely to deepen, and the downstream export competitiveness and ability to accept orders will decline.
4. One of the problems that has been hyped in the domestic market in the near future is that the country has not issued quotas, and even contracted cotton cannot be entered into the country. Therefore, at present, India’s cotton is banned from export, and India’s cotton cannot enter the domestic market. According to common sense, the market has already digested expectations that it is difficult to obtain quotas, and the impact will be compromised.
5. China's current port inventory cotton itself is already high and it is reported that it has remained at more than 1 million tons. It does not include cotton that will be shipped to Hong Kong in succession, and there is no shortage of market resources.
6. China's reserve cotton currently has a total of 2.7 million tons of storage and storage, supplemented with imported cotton, and is expected to reach 4 million tons by the end of March. Consider continuing to increase purchasing and storage in the next year, and it will be released later by throwing stockpiles. The large supply and demand pattern is still relatively loose.
7. US cotton exports have exceeded this year's tasks, and the immovable prices are more significant. Under the Indian cotton export ban, which triggered new contracts to deal with Indian cotton, it may reduce the widespread phenomenon of cotton contract destruction caused by falling prices. .
Affected by India's ban on cotton exports, Zheng cotton has risen sharply. Taken together, India’s cotton exports are prohibited as an emergency policy, and it is possible to end the bottom price of domestic and foreign cotton prices ahead of schedule, and to find a phased bottom price as soon as possible. However, the height of the rebound at the top must not be over expectation. Ultimately, it depends on the consumption of the market, the reaction of textile companies, and the domestic policy situation.
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