Before and after the Spring Festival due to storage and planting area speculation, as well as the reasons for the stocking of textile enterprises, Zheng cotton trend may be strong, but subject to the spot price is low, the upside is expected to be limited.
Due to fears that a large number of stockpiles will make shortages of high-grade cotton resources, combined with stock preparations before the holiday, the recent demand for cotton in Xinjiang is strong, and Xinjiang cotton prices in the mainland have been moved up to around 21,000 yuan/ton, and the market is bullish. However, with the introduction of import quotas, the speculation of the cotton planting area in the new year will only affect the market in the short term, and the cotton market may usher in the trend first and then decline.
Storage and storage actual impact or lower than market expectations As of January 9, the country’s temporary cotton reserves have reached more than 2.38 million tons, and at the end of March this year, when the storage ends at the end of March, total reserves may exceed 3.5 million tons, accounting for almost this year. Half of domestic production. Collection and storage is targeted at cotton above level 4, which is more obvious for high-level resources in the market, so the market is expected to be bullish. However, if we compare the quantity of public inspections, imports, and cotton industry and commerce stocks between this year and the same period of last year, we can find that the actual impact of purchasing and storage is relatively limited.
As of December, the cumulative inspection volume nationwide was 3.513 million tons, an increase of 1.643 million tons over the same period of the previous year (1.869 million tons), an increase of 87.9%. At the same time, from the beginning of September last year to November, China's cotton imports totaled 883,000 tons, an increase of 108.7% year-on-year, which means that the external supply increased by 450,000 tons in two months, and the increase in inspections and imports increased by more than 2 million. Ton. In terms of demand, as of the beginning of December, domestic industrial and commercial inventories of cotton totaled 3.42 million tons, compared with 2.6 million tons in the same period of last year. Commercial and industrial inventories increased by about 800,000 tons year-on-year, and demand side stocks are at a relatively high level in recent years.
In addition, December and January are generally the two most months of cotton imports by China. This year, the port stocks in the bonded area are getting larger and larger, and it is expected that the number of cotton arriving in Hong Kong will increase significantly, especially in India. The exchange rate of the Indian Rupee continued to fall. Indian cotton prices were significantly lower than those of Australian cotton, Brazilian cotton, and US cotton. With the quotas in place, the import data for January may hit new highs again. Therefore, the impact of storage and storage is relatively limited, but the market's response is concentrated on short-term release and may be reflected on the disk.
Northern Hemisphere Planting Reduction, Production Increase in Southern Hemisphere According to a Reuters survey, in 2012/2013, US cotton planting intentions ranged from 13.002 million to 13.242 million acres, a decrease of 10% to 17% from the current year. According to a survey conducted by China Cotton Information Network in January 2012, the intentional planting area of ​​the country's main cotton-producing areas in 2012 was approximately 72.21 million mu, a decrease of 749 million mu from 79.7 million mu in 2011, a decrease of 9%. Overall, the decline in 2012 cotton planting area in the Northern Hemisphere is basically a foregone conclusion, but the reduction may be limited. At the same time, cotton cultivation in Brazil and Australia cannot be ignored. The yields in these two countries are among the highest in the world. The cost of planting Brazilian cotton is lower, the quality of Australian cotton is higher, and two consecutive years of abundant rainfall have reduced the cost of irrigation. Combining the good sales of the two countries this year, it is expected that Brazil and Australia will record new cotton production in 2012.
In summary,
Before and after the Spring Festival due to storage and planting area speculation, as well as the reasons for the stocking of textile enterprises, Zheng cotton trend may be strong, but subject to the spot price is low, the upside is expected to be limited. After the national collection and storage in March is over, negative factors will gradually emerge, and the cotton price will face greater downward pressure, which is weaker than the overall trend of the commodity.
Due to fears that a large number of stockpiles will make shortages of high-grade cotton resources, combined with stock preparations before the holiday, the recent demand for cotton in Xinjiang is strong, and Xinjiang cotton prices in the mainland have been moved up to around 21,000 yuan/ton, and the market is bullish. However, with the introduction of import quotas, the speculation of the cotton planting area in the new year will only affect the market in the short term, and the cotton market may usher in the trend first and then decline.
Storage and storage actual impact or lower than market expectations As of January 9, the country’s temporary cotton reserves have reached more than 2.38 million tons, and at the end of March this year, when the storage ends at the end of March, total reserves may exceed 3.5 million tons, accounting for almost this year. Half of domestic production. Collection and storage is targeted at cotton above level 4, which is more obvious for high-level resources in the market, so the market is expected to be bullish. However, if we compare the quantity of public inspections, imports, and cotton industry and commerce stocks between this year and the same period of last year, we can find that the actual impact of purchasing and storage is relatively limited.
As of December, the cumulative inspection volume nationwide was 3.513 million tons, an increase of 1.643 million tons over the same period of the previous year (1.869 million tons), an increase of 87.9%. At the same time, from the beginning of September last year to November, China's cotton imports totaled 883,000 tons, an increase of 108.7% year-on-year, which means that the external supply increased by 450,000 tons in two months, and the increase in inspections and imports increased by more than 2 million. Ton. In terms of demand, as of the beginning of December, domestic industrial and commercial inventories of cotton totaled 3.42 million tons, compared with 2.6 million tons in the same period of last year. Commercial and industrial inventories increased by about 800,000 tons year-on-year, and demand side stocks are at a relatively high level in recent years.
In addition, December and January are generally the two most months of cotton imports by China. This year, the port stocks in the bonded area are getting larger and larger, and it is expected that the number of cotton arriving in Hong Kong will increase significantly, especially in India. The exchange rate of the Indian Rupee continued to fall. Indian cotton prices were significantly lower than those of Australian cotton, Brazilian cotton, and US cotton. With the quotas in place, the import data for January may hit new highs again. Therefore, the impact of storage and storage is relatively limited, but the market's response is concentrated on short-term release and may be reflected on the disk.
Northern Hemisphere Planting Reduction, Production Increase in Southern Hemisphere According to a Reuters survey, in 2012/2013, US cotton planting intentions ranged from 13.002 million to 13.242 million acres, a decrease of 10% to 17% from the current year. According to a survey conducted by China Cotton Information Network in January 2012, the intentional planting area of ​​the country's main cotton-producing areas in 2012 was approximately 72.21 million mu, a decrease of 749 million mu from 79.7 million mu in 2011, a decrease of 9%. Overall, the decline in 2012 cotton planting area in the Northern Hemisphere is basically a foregone conclusion, but the reduction may be limited. At the same time, cotton cultivation in Brazil and Australia cannot be ignored. The yields in these two countries are among the highest in the world. The cost of planting Brazilian cotton is lower, the quality of Australian cotton is higher, and two consecutive years of abundant rainfall have reduced the cost of irrigation. Combining the good sales of the two countries this year, it is expected that Brazil and Australia will record new cotton production in 2012.
In summary,
Before and after the Spring Festival due to storage and planting area speculation, as well as the reasons for the stocking of textile enterprises, Zheng cotton trend may be strong, but subject to the spot price is low, the upside is expected to be limited. After the national collection and storage in March is over, negative factors will gradually emerge, and the cotton price will face greater downward pressure, which is weaker than the overall trend of the commodity.
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