[China Glass Network] On May 11, the trend of commodity futures was generally strong. Among them, the 1709 contract of glass futures was even higher in volume and price, up 3.4%. Analysts pointed out that the spot price is still on the rise, and the cost of the glass warehouse receipts is supported, which has driven the price to rebound sharply. Looking ahead to the market, it is more likely that the futures price will remain volatile.
Glass futures rose 3.4%. Yesterday, the glass 1709 contract opened at 1228 yuan/ton. Since then, it has maintained a volatile situation. The stock suddenly rose in the end, and closed at 1,278 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan or 3.4%. The market's main contract rose the list. Yesterday, the contract volume surged 235,000 to 510,000, and the position increased by 33,950 to 312,000.
Hu Huahan, a senior analyst at SDIC Anxin Futures, said that there were two main reasons for the strong future volume of glass futures. First, the national glass spot price is still rising further. It is reported that on the afternoon of May 10, in order to boost the market atmosphere and promote shipments, Shahe Security announced that it plans to increase the thickness of all white glass by 10 yuan/ton on the 15th, which has increased the other manufacturers and traders in the Shahe area to some extent. Confidence.
Second, the glass warehouse is cost-supported. At present, the spot price of 5MM flat float glass in Shahe area is lower at 1,272 yuan/ton, and the cost of sand storage glass warehouse warehouse is estimated to exceed 1,300 yuan/ton. Therefore, yesterday's glass price fell to 1215 yuan / ton and was quickly pulled up by funds.
After the market volatility
Looking back in April, the glass futures have gone out of a wave of deep V rebound, first and then rise. At the beginning of April, the demand for glass futures in Xiong'an New District was briefly higher than expected, and then it was rapidly driven by the weakness of the black system and tight market funds. Since then, the Shahe area has been shut down due to environmental factors, and the inventory pressure of the manufacturers has increased greatly. However, as the black system stopped falling and the market recovered, the glass futures stabilized and rebounded. After rising for four consecutive days, they returned to above 1,300 yuan/ton and repeatedly fluctuated.
Looking forward to the market outlook, Founder's medium-term futures analysts believe that due to the sharp drop in soda ash prices, the current glass inventory pressure is far lower than the same period in 2015 and 2016. Most of the current production companies are still selling at a very high price, and some manufacturers are also planning to raise prices again. Boost the market atmosphere. Overall, the spot demand for glass has gradually weakened. May glass or maintain a weak trend, the support below is 1184 yuan / ton, the upper will be pressure 1270 yuan / ton.
Hu Huazhan expects that the glass futures 1709 contract will fluctuate around the 1,300 yuan/ton line, with a range of 1200-1400 yuan/ton. First of all, the national glass spot price is generally moderately raised. In the short term, the glass production enterprises have less capital pressure and the enthusiasm for price reduction is not high. Secondly, more and more cities across the country have introduced real estate control policies, and the market demand for glass is gradually decreasing. Third, glass production capacity has not changed much. Since the beginning of this year, a total of 7 glass production lines have been cold-repaired, and two new production lines have been built. 4 production lines, net reduction of production capacity of 3.78 million weight boxes. In addition, the national glass inventory is still high, and the pessimistic mood of the commodity market will also limit the further price hikes of glass enterprises, at least until the opportunity of “Golden September, Silver 10†will raise the spot price.
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