For most research institutions, cotton producers and cotton mills, you want to determine the trend of domestic cotton prices in 2014/15, potential highs and lows, and selling and buying opportunities. In 2015, China's cotton consumption capacity Is a must mention, have to estimate, have to research data. For most research institutions, cotton producers and cotton mills, you want to determine the trend of domestic cotton prices in 2014/15, potential highs and lows, and selling and buying opportunities. In 2015, China's cotton consumption capacity Is a must mention, have to estimate, have to research data. Recently, at a cotton industry meeting, the traders and the cotton textile organizations debated the 2014/15 spending power of cotton. At the end of the discussion, the data in the industry were approved at between 6.5 and 7.5 million tons while some institutions still insisted Consumption less than 6 million tons, the main consideration is based on the volume of foreign cotton imports in 2014 + the remaining market after the reserve market in 2013/14 lint + State Reserve cotton sales volume (excluding changes in industrial stocks). In my opinion, although China's consumption of cotton in 2014/15 is not optimistic, it does not need to be overly pessimistic. Its annual consumption of over 700 million tons is not "out of reach." First, cotton textile industry as a very important part of China's real economy. With the appreciation of the U.S. dollar and the downward pressure on the domestic economic situation, the state needs to increase credit support, raise the export tax rebate rate, and solve the "two taxes and one tax" issue . In 2012-2014, middle and low-grade orders shifted to lower Southeast Asia, Bangladesh and even West Africa countries with raw materials, manpower, and tax costs. China's textile and clothing industries were "upgraded" and their support for textile-based industries also dropped drastically. Support for trade export-oriented enterprises increased. Statistics show that as of 2012, there are about 1.2-1.3 billion spindles in China, which directly or indirectly solve the employment of 50-70 million people in the labor force. Since January, the strong appreciation of the U.S. dollar, the devaluation of the Renminbi and the difficulties in the export of textiles, clothing and other industries Increase, export orders increased by 10% or more, so how to crack the key to the issue, in addition to the credit funds needed to be "multi-pronged approach" to help businesses tide over the difficulties, or cotton textile and apparel industry problems, the entire community Employment, stability and pressure are not small. Second, the continuous narrowing of domestic and foreign cotton spreads is conducive to the export of textile products such as cotton yarn and gray cloth, and enhance the export competitiveness of enterprises. As a result of India's domestic policy of bottoming out the "minimum purchase price of seed cotton" in 2014/15, the total acquisition volume of Indian Cotton Company (CCI) as of January 20 was 847,200 tons. Due to the cost support, the domestic cotton S-6 Ex-factory price of 63-64 cents / lb, cotton processing enterprises have been at a loss, even if CCI throwing storage 2013/14 lint, the market and the market pressure is also more limited. According to USDA statistics, as of January 15, the 2014/15 US cotton contract progress nearly 90%, ICE cotton futures market or face the pressure of delivery, the high level of cotton in Australia have few remaining cases, the United States cotton The space available for Chinese enterprises has also been very limited. As a result, the downward pressure on ICE cotton futures is gradually diluting. The spot increase of ICE cotton futures and foreign cotton futures is expected to be significantly greater than that of domestic cottons. The difference between domestic cotton futures and foreign cotton futures may be reduced to 800 yuan / ton or even 500 yuan Yuan / ton. In addition, due to the drastic drop in the price of cotton in 2014, the enthusiasm among farmers in the United States, China, India and other major cotton producing countries has been rapidly raised. Since the drastic reduction of the acreage in 2015 and the joint speculation of funds and markets, Prices are likely to rise together. Third, China's economic growth will slow down. A large amount of funds will gradually return to the real economy. After completion of industrial upgrading and structural transformation, the cotton textile industry will rejuvenate the "second spring" and continue to be the vanguard of export earning. The transfer of textile and apparel industries from developed eastern coastal areas to inland China and other provinces and cities in Xinjiang and even low-cost countries such as Southeast Asia and Bangladesh is an "inevitable stage" of development. After all, it is impossible for any industry or industry to remain in the golden decade. Since 2012, cotton yarn from the United States, Turkey, Central Asia and other countries started to weave into China and traders dumped. The "hollowing out" of the real economy has become increasingly prominent. A large amount of funds have been diverted to real estate, finance, infrastructure and the like. In addition, cotton seeds from seed companies to cotton farmers However, with the real estate industry facing the depth adjustment, the scale of financial financing is shrinking and the CPI and PPI are in an all-round slowdown, the funds have not been seen and resolved since the quality of lint, internal indicators and "three-wire" Returning to the real economy is the only way China's economy can quickly get out of the "quagmire." As a solution to over 90% of SME employment is bound to usher in the second round of development opportunities, small and medium-sized cotton mills, weaving plants everywhere is not a luxury, then the cotton price will experience stabilized, stabilized, rebound "three steps." Fourth, a large number of alternative chemical fiber cotton itself is a false proposition, but the stage of the product, cotton consumption demand will not be polyester staple fiber, viscose staple around. Chemical fiber yarn, chemical fiber fabric and fabric exports and domestic sales for large growth, at least from the data released by the General Administration of Customs point of view, polyester and cotton yarn, polyester cotton fabric production and export volume has not been more substantial improvement, it touches on some electronic sales platform To fake consumers fake fake, cotton products orders have been replaced by polyester, polyester viscose, cotton sticky and other products delivery, and ultimately "lift the stone hit their own feet." In addition, the equipment for spinning cotton yarn is used for spinning chemical fiber yarn. The blending yarn needs equipment adjustment and capital investment. The spinning enterprises need to fully consider the gains and losses. The competition in the chemical fiber industry has also been fierce. It is not easy for the cotton market to enter the market firmly. To "think twice before you go."
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