Domestic and foreign cotton prices do not change, and cotton reserves continue to increase

Recently, the downstream consumption has not improved, the yarn and cloth inventory of the company has increased, the funds have tightened, the pressure of the company's price reduction promotions has been high, and the price of cotton yarn continues to fall. Due to the drop in prices of upstream PTA, the price of polyester staple fiber has dropped significantly. The operating rate of textile enterprises decreased, raw materials procurement was weak, and domestic cotton prices fell slightly. On November 4th, 32 cotton combed yarns were offered at RMB 26,870/ton, which was RMB 200/ton lower than last week, down by 0.7%; polyester staple fiber was quoted at RMB 1,1950/ton, down RMB 550/ton from the previous week. 4.4%. The average purchase price of China's Grade 3 seed cotton was 4.11 yuan/kg (the purchase price of klint was 18210 yuan/ton), a decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous week, a decrease of 1.2%; the average purchase price of Xinjiang 3rd grade seed cotton was 4.14 yuan/kg (a purchase of klint cotton) Price 18,267 yuan / ton), down 0.06 yuan / kg from the previous week, a decrease of 1.4%. The national cotton price B index representing the average sales price of standard lint inland of the Mainland was 19,316 yuan/ton, down 129 yuan/ton or 0.7% from the previous week; the average price of Xinjiang standard lard sales was 19,637 yuan/ton, down 116 yuan from the previous week. / Ton, a decrease of 0.6%. Zhengzhou Cotton ** November contract settlement price 19345 yuan / ton, compared with last week fell 135 yuan / ton, a drop of 0.7%; national cotton trading market electronic matching transactions in November contract average price 18883 yuan / ton, down 204 yuan from last week / Ton, a decrease of 1.1%.

Due to the downturn in the spot market, acquisition and processing companies increased their efforts in deposits, and the volume of purchases and storages increased substantially. The transaction volume for closing storage was 154,820 tons in the week from October 31 to November 4, an increase of 82,420 tons or 113.8% from the previous week. As of November 4, the cumulative transaction volume of purchases and purchases this year was 250,880 tons, of which 69,240 tons were traded in the mainland, accounting for 27.6%; and 181,640 tons in Xinjiang, accounting for 72.4%.

Macroeconomic policies have been fine-tuned in recent days, but the downturn in downstream demand still constrains the future trend of cotton prices. In October 2011, the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) released by the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing was 50.4%, down by 0.8% from the previous quarter. After a slight rebound in the first two months, it once again entered a downward track. From the sub-index, the new export orders index fell by more than 2 percentage points, indicating that the growth rate of social demand has fallen significantly. At present, the production and sales of the textile industry in China are in a downturn, the sales of yarns and fabrics are sluggish, the inventory of finished products has picked up, and the phenomenon of stoppage of production and production of enterprises has increased, and the amount of cotton purchases is difficult to amplify. In addition, the volume of domestic purchases and stores in recent days has reached a record high, and the enthusiasm of the cotton enterprises to pay deposits has increased significantly, which is a reflection of the weak demand for downstream cotton. As domestic consumption and demand for cotton cannot be quickly rebounded, the spot price of cotton is expected to further weaken.

The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) continues to cut cotton consumption. Global cotton supply continues to increase while demand is insufficient. Cotton prices have declined. On November 4, the New York Cotton** December contract settled at 98.7 cents/lb, down 5.6 cents/lb from the previous week, down 5.4%. The international cotton index (M), which represents the average price of imported cotton in China's main port, was calculated at a 1% tariff, with the import cost of RMB 18,655/ton, down by RMB 1,347/ton or 6.7% from the previous week; According to the tax calculation, the import cost of discounted goods was 19,044 yuan/ton, which was a decrease of 1,333 yuan/ton from the previous week, a decrease of 6.5%.

The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) released its global production and demand forecast for November. It is estimated that global cotton consumption in 2011/12 will be 24.6 million tons, down 120,000 tons from the previous month. This year, global production exceeded 2.3 million tons of consumption, and the ratio of inventory to consumption (excluding China) is expected to rise to 55%. The recent US cotton export report shows that in the week of 21-27 October 2011, the net contracted export volume of U.S. upland cotton in 2011/12 was 20,900 tons, a decrease of 66,400 tons from the previous week. At the recent G20 summit, leaders of various countries failed to reach an agreement on the resolution of the European debt crisis through the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The euro zone debt crisis still has no solution and market confidence is difficult to recover. With the global cotton supply exceeding the need to continue to exert pressure on the international cotton price, the cotton price is still difficult to get rid of the weak trend, and it is expected that the weak oscillation will be maintained in the near future.

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