Recently, the liquidity of the money market has been calm. However, near the middle of the year, the number of liquidity operations has increased. Analysts believe that in the future, financial regulatory assessment, fiscal deposit volatility, statutory reserve payments and changes in foreign exchange holdings will be the main source of liquidity uncertainty. There is a gap between fund supply and demand in June and July. It mainly depends on the central bank's response. It is expected that there will be no excessively volatile fluctuations in the funds, but time-based or structural fluctuations may be inevitable, and the upside and downside of the capital interest rate are not large.
In the future, there are indeed many factors affecting the supply and demand of liquidity. The number of funds is increasing. The main risk points may appear in the following four aspects:
The first is financial supervision and assessment. Recently, the new regulations on the regulation of new assets and the new regulations on the liquidity of commercial banks have been released one after another. Compared with the draft for comments, they have all relaxed to some extent, and the market concerns have eased. However, it should be noted that compared with the past regulatory requirements, the assessment of the financial system is still strict, and the impact of financial supervision on liquidity is still increasing.
Considering that the assessment period is approaching at the end of the half year, and the implementation of the new liquidity regulations is imminent, the liquidity of the money market under the disturbance of financial supervision and assessment remains uncertain.
It is worth mentioning that the size of inter-bank deposits due in June exceeded 2.2 trillion yuan. At present, it is the largest month of this year. The continuation of the same-term deposit receipts pressure, stacking the demand for incremental issuance before the end of the season, will result in a concentrated supply of deposit certificates, if the issue is not smooth, may lead to financial constraints and market panic, which has appeared many times last year.
Second, fiscal deposits fluctuate. After the RRR cut in April, the market funds were not tight, and it was largely affected by the fluctuations in fiscal deposits. The data shows that fiscal deposits in April increased by about 720 billion yuan due to tax revenue, far exceeding the scale of incremental funds released after the replacement of MLF.
From the historical data, due to the increase in fiscal expenditure at the end of the fiscal year, fiscal deposits will decline in June, which will provide certain liquidity, but still need to pay attention to the impact of government bond issuance. Since the beginning of this year, the pace of local bond issuance has been slow, and about 800 billion yuan has been issued, which is more than 500 billion yuan less than last year. The agency expects that the issuance of local bonds may approach or exceed 5 trillion yuan this year, which means that the backlog of supply pressure is not small. Entering the peak period of mid-year issuance, the centralized issuance of government bonds will temporarily increase fiscal deposits and occupy the banking system. funds.
In addition, the tax season will be ushered in July, and fiscal deposits are expected to rise again and recover liquidity. This is also an important reason why the funding situation in July was difficult to ease soon after the end of the first half of the year.
The third is the statutory deposit reserve. In order to meet the assessment requirements, banks tend to increase their reserves during the end of the month, which will result in a larger increase in general deposits at the end of the quarter, which will bring pressure on statutory reserves.
In addition, since 2017, the monetary authority's balance sheet has added the subject of “non-financial institution depositsâ€, mainly the deposits deposited by third-party payment institutions in the central bank. Since the beginning of this year, this subject has increased by 400 billion yuan, and the liquidity of the corresponding scale has been recovered. In the future, the balance of this subject may continue to increase, which has a certain adverse impact on liquidity.
The fourth is the fluctuation of foreign exchange holdings. Since April, the renminbi has weakened against the US dollar, and the market's concerns about exchange rate depreciation and capital outflows have risen, but no signs of a sharp outflow of capital have yet been seen. Even so, the fluctuation of foreign exchange account in the middle of the year is still worthy of attention. Because June and July are the peak dividends of overseas listed companies, the demand for large foreign exchange will be generated, which may lead to a decline in the balance of foreign exchange, and passively withdraw the liquidity of the local currency.
Based on the above factors, the liquidity supply and demand gap of the banking system in June and July is objectively present, and the actual operation of the fund will mainly depend on the strength and rhythm of the central bank's supply liquidity.
Since the beginning of the year, there have been some signs of fine-tuning in the operation of monetary policy, and the overall financial situation is better than expected. On May 28, the central bank restarted the 28-day reverse repurchase operation, which also indicates that the central bank has begun to provide cross-season liquidity support. It is expected that the central bank will increase the open market operation during the middle of the year, increase the supply of inter-season funds, and stabilize the seasonal tension and fluctuations that may occur in liquidity. It does not rule out the possibility of re-implementing the replacement. Therefore, it is expected that liquidity risk will remain manageable in June and July this year.
However, at the end of the half year, it is difficult to reproduce the easing of expectations that is more than expected at the end of the first quarter. First, the financial institutions' super-reserve ratio has declined, and the total liquidity is limited. Second, the funds are too loose, it is easy to stimulate the rebound of the financial system's leverage ratio, which is contrary to the regulatory orientation. Third, the Fed will raise interest rates again in June. The Sino-US spread has moved away from the “comfort zoneâ€, and the pressure from exchange rates and capital flows will limit the relaxation of domestic monetary policy.
In general, in June and July this year, capital fabrics will not be severely tightened, but time-based or structural fluctuations are inevitable, and the money market interest rates are not large.
(China Securities Journal Zhang Qinfeng)
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